Bear Play on Silver ETF

Today’s tickers: SLV, BAC, TZA & X SLV - iShares Silver Trust – It looks as though commodity traders have it all to play for in 2010. Raw materials prices had surged especially late in 2009 as they felt the tailwind of a declining dollar. However, an abrupt about-face helped pull the rug and several commodity prices went into a tailspin. The irony here is that it’s a strengthening global economy backed by evidence of rising demand for industrial inputs that has lifted silver and copper prices independently of the hoarding for the precious yellow metal, which grabbed all the headlines recently. Shares in the iShares Silver trust, meant to track the price of an ounce of silver are still holding well above last week’s $16.64 low, although are down today at $16.83. One investor appears to have extended protection against a fall in the price of silver by selling almost 40,000 January put options and buying the same amount of contracts in the February contract. We don’t know whether the investor is already commodity bullish and just aims to protect unnecessary losses in the event of a sudden dollar upturn, or whether this is an outright bet that the commodity rally is overdone. If the latter is the case, the investor will benefit in the event of a 10.8% decline in the price of the ETF. The option market tells us that there is a 16% chance of that happening by expiration in February. BAC - Bank of America – Shares at the banking behemoth are 0.7% lower today at $15.18 and although implied options volatility is hardly changed at 33.6%, it does appear that the at-the-money straddle has been sold somewhat during this morning’s trade. The volume patterns at both January $15 strike calls and puts appears married and there is actually heavier volume on the put side where sellers raked in average premiums of around 31 cents during the morning. In the middle of December shares recorded a low at $14.83, while we need to glance all the way back to the start of November and well before the announcement of BoA’s new chief executive to see weaker price action that drove its shares down to $14.21. Naked selling of put options at today’s premium dictates a breakeven share price at expiration of $14.69, which is effectively where today’s put sellers are buying shares in the event they are indeed assigned…