Donald Trump is undoubtedly facing his third indictment – one that I was never sure would be brought.
And the source is… Trump himself.
As with his first indictment – the wobbly Stormy Daniels case – Trump is trying to at least control the narrative by saying his attorneys gave him the "HORRIBLE NEWS" about having received a target letter from the Justice Department. And for "deranged Jack Smith" to send such a letter giving him four days to appear before the grand jury (he won’t), that "almost always means an Arrest and Indictment," Trump said on Truth Social.
In terms of the significance to American history, there’s no question that the effort to overturn the 2020 election and the Capitol riot are more important than payments to a porn star or improperly withholding classified documents.
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But in terms of evidence – and I have to stress here we haven’t seen the pending indictment – it appears on the surface to be the hardest case to prove. Smith will have the advantage of a D.C. jury, but of course the case has to be tried in Washington – and others may be charged along with Trump – because that’s where the alleged crimes took place.
The former president is quite upset, even by Trumpian standards:
"THIS WITCH HUNT IS ALL ABOUT ELECTION INTERFERENCE AND A COMPLETE AND TOTAL POLITICAL WEAPONIZATION OF LAW ENFORCEMENT! It is a very sad and dark period for our Nation!"
Trump also invokes his candidacy: "Merrick Garland…, together with Joe Biden’s Department of Injustice, have effectively issued a third Indictment and Arrest of Joe Biden’s NUMBER ONE POLITICAL OPPONENT, who is largely dominating him in the race for the Presidency." (Actually, three recent polls show Biden leading Trump by 1 or 2 points – a statistical tie – and one an actual tie. Plus, it’s way early.)
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Republicans, led by Kevin McCarthy, have embraced the argument that this is a partisan attempt by an out-of-control Justice Department to damage their party’s presidential front-runner. But they rarely engage on the substance of these indictments (again, none of us has seen this one).
Marjorie Taylor Greene called the indictment "absolute bullsh**," saying "this is the only way that the Democrats have to beat President Trump is to arrest him, smear him, charge him with ridiculous charges."
Most of Trump’s 2024 rivals feel compelled to defend him against the nasty DOJ. But Nikki Haley got out in front, saying "the rest of this primary election is gonna be in reference to Trump. It’s gonna be about lawsuits, it’s gonna be about legal fees, it’s gonna be about judges, and it’s just gonna continue to be a further and further distraction… We can’t keep dealing with this drama."
And as Ron DeSantis told me on Sunday, whether it helps or hurts Trump – and so far it has helped – these criminal charges so dominate the news that it’s hard for the other candidates to get much attention. At a presser yesterday, the Florida governor, DeSantis said Trump should have done more to shut down the violence while he was sitting in the White House, but that’s not the same as criminalizing his conduct.
One giant clue to the investigation: Media reports saying prosecutors were asking those in Trump’s inner circle whether he had privately admitted he had lost the election. This goes to the question of intent, and whether they can prove he sought to overturn the election even though he knew there was no widespread fraud.
The president’s pressure on Mike Pence to block the Electoral College certification – which he had no power to do, even as the mob was chanting to hang him – could also be part of the equation.
So the indictment may involve various conspiracy charges to defraud the United States, as well as damning details we don’t know from the likes of Mark Meadows and Rudy Giuliani.
I still think this is a tough case to prove.
If the Atlanta-area prosecutor charges Trump with election fraud next month, that will be four criminal cases he has to contest, not to mention the civil suits by the New York attorney general and E. Jean Carroll. I can’t even imagine what the campaign will look like if the former president is in and out of courtrooms.
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Four indictments may convince most Republicans that the whole law-enforcement system is out to get their man. At this rate, he could reach 100% in GOP primary polls.
At the same time, suburban and independent voters in the general election may just be worn out by the endless investigations and trials, and want to move on from the chaos of the Trump presidency.
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In normal times, one indictment would be enough to knock a candidate out of the race. Yet here we are debating whether Trump can win after being indicted three, and possibly four, times. Love him or hate him, you have to admit: Only he would have the resilience to keep on fighting.
