Vacation ownership company Marriott Vacations (NYSE: VAC) reported Q4 CY2025 results exceeding the market’s revenue expectations, but sales were flat year on year at $1.32 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.86 per share was 9% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Marriott Vacations (VAC) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $1.32 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.3 billion (flat year on year, 2.1% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.86 vs analyst estimates of $1.71 (9% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $186 million vs analyst estimates of $178.4 million (14.1% margin, 4.3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $7.43 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 8.2%
- EBITDA guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $767.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $736.4 million
- Guests: 1,507, down 1.54 million year on year
- Market Capitalization: $1.95 billion
Company Overview
Spun off from Marriott International in 1984, Marriott Vacations (NYSE: VAC) is a vacation company providing leisure experiences for travelers around the world.
Revenue Growth
A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one grows for years. Over the last five years, Marriott Vacations grew its sales at a 11.8% annual rate. Though this growth is acceptable on an absolute basis, we need to see more than just topline growth for the consumer discretionary sector, which can display significant earnings volatility. This means our bar for the sector is particularly high, reflecting the non-essential and hit-driven nature of the products and services offered. Additionally, five-year CAGR starts around Covid, when revenue was depressed then rebounded.
We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within consumer discretionary, a stretched historical view may miss a company riding a successful new property or trend. Marriott Vacations’s recent performance shows its demand has slowed as its annualized revenue growth of 3.2% over the last two years was below its five-year trend. We’re wary when companies in the sector see decelerations in revenue growth, as it could signal changing consumer tastes aided by low switching costs. 
We can dig further into the company’s revenue dynamics by analyzing its number of guests and conducted tours, which clocked in at 1,507 and 109,965 in the latest quarter. Over the last two years, Marriott Vacations’s guests averaged 99.9% year-on-year declines while its conducted tours were flat. 
This quarter, Marriott Vacations’s $1.32 billion of revenue was flat year on year but beat Wall Street’s estimates by 2.1%.
Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 1% over the next 12 months, a slight deceleration versus the last two years. This projection doesn't excite us and suggests its products and services will see some demand headwinds.
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Operating Margin
in line with the same quarter last year. This indicates the company’s overall cost structure has been relatively stable.
Earnings Per Share
Revenue trends explain a company’s historical growth, but the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) points to the profitability of that growth – for example, a company could inflate its sales through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.
Marriott Vacations’s full-year EPS flipped from negative to positive over the last five years. This is encouraging and shows it’s at a critical moment in its life.
In Q4, Marriott Vacations reported adjusted EPS of $1.86, in line with the same quarter last year. This print beat analysts’ estimates by 9%. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Marriott Vacations’s full-year EPS of $7.17 to shrink by 3.8%.
Key Takeaways from Marriott Vacations’s Q4 Results
It was encouraging to see Marriott Vacations’s full-year EBITDA guidance beat analysts’ expectations. We were also glad its EPS outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, we think this was a decent quarter with some key metrics above expectations. The stock traded up 8.7% to $63.02 immediately following the results.
Marriott Vacations may have had a good quarter, but does that mean you should invest right now? What happened in the latest quarter matters, but not as much as longer-term business quality and valuation, when deciding whether to invest in this stock. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).
