What Happened?
Shares of autonomous driving technology company Mobileye (NASDAQ: MBLY) fell 2.7% in the afternoon session after the company provided a full-year 2026 revenue forecast that fell short of analyst expectations.
The cautious outlook overshadowed the company's fourth-quarter results. Mobileye's full-year revenue guidance of $1.94 billion at the midpoint came in 3% below analysts’ estimates. While its adjusted earnings of $0.06 per share met expectations, its quarterly revenue of $446 million represented a 9% decline year on year. Profitability was also a major concern, as the company’s operating margin worsened to negative 31.4% from negative 17.6% in the same quarter last year, and its adjusted EBITDA significantly missed Wall Street's estimates.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Mobileye’s shares are very volatile and have had 28 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 9 days ago when the stock dropped 4.3% on the news that Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to "Peer Perform" from "Outperform," citing concerns about its growth prospects.
The research firm, led by analyst Emmanuel Rosner, noted a lack of near-term catalysts for the company. The analyst indicated that Wall Street estimates for 2026 appeared too high. Wolfe Research's adjusted operating income forecast of $288 million sat 16% below the consensus. The firm also stated it expected only low-single-digit top-line growth for the company.
Mobileye is down 5.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $10.61 per share, it is trading 44.4% below its 52-week high of $19.08 from July 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Mobileye’s shares at the IPO in October 2022 would now be looking at an investment worth $366.07.
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