Packaged foods company J.M Smucker (NYSE:SJM) fell short of the market’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2024, with sales falling 1.9% year on year to $2.19 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.61 per share was 10.3% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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J. M. Smucker (SJM) Q4 CY2024 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.19 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.22 billion (1.9% year-on-year decline, 1.7% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $2.61 vs analyst estimates of $2.37 (10.3% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $607.7 million vs analyst estimates of $505.8 million (27.8% margin, 20.1% beat)
- Management raised its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $10 at the midpoint, a 1% increase (beat)
- Operating Margin: -27.2%, down from 13.3% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 6.9%, down from 11.2% in the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes fell 5% year on year (4% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $11.62 billion
"Our third quarter performance reflects the continued execution of our strategy and ability to deliver positive results in a dynamic operating and consumer environment," said Mark Smucker, Chair of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Company Overview
Best known for its fruit jams and spreads, J.M Smucker (NYSE:SJM) is a packaged foods company whose products span from peanut butter and coffee to pet food.
Shelf-Stable Food
As America industrialized and moved away from an agricultural economy, people faced more demands on their time. Packaged foods emerged as a solution offering convenience to the evolving American family, whether it be canned goods or snacks. Today, Americans seek brands that are high in quality, reliable, and reasonably priced. Furthermore, there's a growing emphasis on health-conscious and sustainable food options. Packaged food stocks are considered resilient investments. People always need to eat, so these companies can enjoy consistent demand as long as they stay on top of changing consumer preferences. The industry spans from multinational corporations to smaller specialized firms and is subject to food safety and labeling regulations.
Sales Growth
A company’s long-term sales performance is one signal of its overall quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one grows for years.
With $8.79 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, J. M. Smucker is one of the larger consumer staples companies and benefits from a well-known brand that influences consumer purchasing decisions. However, its scale is a double-edged sword because there are only a finite number of major retail partners, placing a ceiling on its growth. To accelerate sales, J. M. Smucker must lean into newer products.
As you can see below, J. M. Smucker’s sales grew at a sluggish 3.7% compounded annual growth rate over the last three years, but to its credit, consumers bought more of its products.
This quarter, J. M. Smucker missed Wall Street’s estimates and reported a rather uninspiring 1.9% year-on-year revenue decline, generating $2.19 billion of revenue.
Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 1.7% over the next 12 months, a slight deceleration versus the last three years. This projection is underwhelming and implies its products will face some demand challenges.
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Volume Growth
Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful staples business as there’s a ceiling to what consumers will pay for everyday goods; they can always trade down to non-branded products if the branded versions are too expensive.
J. M. Smucker’s average quarterly volume growth was a healthy 2.5% over the last two years. This is pleasing because it shows consumers are purchasing more of its products. 
In J. M. Smucker’s Q4 2025, sales volumes dropped 5% year on year. This result was a reversal from its historical levels.
Key Takeaways from J. M. Smucker’s Q4 Results
Revenue, gross margin, and EPS both beat in the quarter. The company also raised its full-year EPS guidance slightly, and this is above expectations. Overall, this quarter had some key positives. The stock remained flat at $108.50 immediately following the results.
Should you buy the stock or not? The latest quarter does matter, but not nearly as much as longer-term fundamentals and valuation, when deciding if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.
