What Happened?

Shares of freight transportation and logistics provider Saia (NASDAQ: SAIA) jumped 2.8% in the morning session after the company released its less-than-truckload (LTL) operating data for the first two months of the fourth quarter, which showed a rebound in November after a weak October. The company, which specializes in shipping freight that doesn't require a full truck, reported that LTL shipments per workday fell 3.4% and tonnage declined 3.3% in October compared to the same month in the previous year. However, the trend reversed in November, with shipments per workday rising 2.6% and tonnage increasing 1.8%. This turnaround suggested improving business conditions, which likely gave investors confidence in the company's performance heading into the end of the year.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Saia’s shares are very volatile and have had 22 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 7 months ago when the stock dropped 34.8% on the news that the company reported weak first-quarter 2025 results, with its revenue and EBITDA both falling short of analysts' estimates, reflecting a tough start to the year. The real story was the sharp sales and profit declines, driven by weather-related disruptions, and weaker-than-expected March shipments. While revenue ticked up 4%, that modest gain masked deeper issues: growth in tonnage and shipments was undermined by a drop in revenue per unit, especially when excluding fuel surcharges, which fell more than 5%. The lack of typical seasonal acceleration in March also weighed heavily on performance. Overall, this was a softer quarter.

Saia is down 30.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $307.88 per share, it is trading 44.8% below its 52-week high of $557.74 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Saia’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,764.

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