Confidence among middle market businesses rebounds, as small businesses hold steady

At the start of the year, strong optimism among U.S. business leaders is setting the stage for an active 2026, according to JPMorganChase’s annual Business Leaders Outlook survey of small and midsize companies. Following a year of persistent economic and geopolitical headwinds, business leaders are charting a path forward by pursuing growth opportunities, embracing emerging technologies and, in some cases, forging new strategic partnerships.

As businesses grow and scale, their financial needs become more complex and their exposure to macroeconomic forces can intensify, shaping both their strategies and outlook. The survey highlights how these dynamics play out across companies of different sizes. Middle market companies—often more exposed to geopolitical shifts and policy changes—are reporting a rebound in optimism after confidence dipped in June of last year. Meanwhile, small businesses maintain steady optimism but continue to contend with domestic challenges—especially inflation and wage pressures—with a smaller share citing regulatory uncertainty as a concern.

Against this backdrop, the survey offers an in-depth look at the perspectives of middle market and small business leaders at the start of 2026.

The Middle Market: Confidence Rebounds, Driving Bullish Growth Plans

Middle market companies are kicking off the new year with an upbeat outlook for their businesses, rebounding to nearly the same levels of optimism seen this time last year. Following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, optimism surged, with many anticipating a favorable business environment. By June 2025, however, sentiment shifted amid concerns about political dynamics, tariffs, evolving regulations and global economic headwinds.

As leaders enter 2026, optimism is recovering, though worries remain. Top concerns include economic uncertainty (49%), revenue/sales growth (33%), and tariffs and labor (both at 31%). While just over half (51%) do not expect a recession in 2026, only 39% express optimism about the national economy. Still, leaders are bullish when it comes to their own prospects:

• 71% are optimistic about their company’s prospects at the start of this year, compared to 58% in June 2025 and 75% in January 2025
• 73% project increased revenue, compared to 50% in June 2025 and 74% in January 2025
• 48% expect to increase headcount, up from 37% in June 2025 and 51% in January 2025

“There’s a real sense of momentum across the middle market as business leaders prepare to set ambitious growth plans in motion,” said Melissa Smith, Co-Head of Commercial Banking at J.P. Morgan. “Companies are thinking creatively about how to position themselves for the future as they navigate complex macroeconomic factors.”

This growth mindset is reflected in the strategies leaders are prioritizing for 2026, such as introducing new products or services (58%), expanding into new domestic and/or international markets (53%), pursuing strategic partnerships or investments (49%) and/or mergers and acquisitions (39%).

Read more about the middle market outlook, including the impact of tariffs and adoption of technology and AI, here: jpmorgan.com/businessleadersoutlook2026

Small Business: Steady Sentiment and a Focus on Adaptation

Small businesses are entering 2026 with steady optimism and a clear focus on adaptation. Throughout 2025, owners navigated persistent cost pressures and shifting economic signals. While cost challenges remain front and center, small business sentiment has shown a new level of resolve—even strengthening as the year progressed.

“Small business owners are operating with a mix of optimism and pragmatism,” said Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business. “They’re making smart investments and doubling down on innovation, setting the pace for Main Street in the year ahead while adapting to shifting market dynamics.”

Notably, more than 60% say they feel more positive about their own business now than at any point in the past five years.

• 74% are optimistic about their company’s outlook for 2026, holding steady from 76% in July 2025 and 75% in November 2024
• 76% expect revenue growth, consistent with 75% in July 2025 and 74% in November 2024
• 76% anticipate higher profits, compared to 75% in July 2025 and 74% in November 2024
• 53% plan to increase headcount, up slightly from 52% in July 2025 and 55% in November 2024
• Only 27% expect a recession in 2026, down from 39% at mid-year

At the same time, small business owners remain mindful of the broader environment, with inflation, cost pressures and tariffs continuing as top challenges. Owners are responding by building maneuvering room for continued pressures in 2026—building cash reserves (47%), renegotiating supplier terms (36%) and ramping up investments in marketing and technology. This includes AI, which 59% now see as essential for competitiveness within three years, and 61% expect to streamline operations. Over half expect the economy to stabilize, and most anticipate smoother supply chains in the year ahead.

Read more about the small business outlook here: chase.com/business

Expert Guidance for a Complex World

No matter their size or stage of growth, business leaders recognize that many factors shaping the future—such as geopolitics, rising global competition, supply chain dynamics and cybersecurity threats—are beyond their direct control. Navigating this landscape requires a robust ecosystem of advice and specialized expertise.

For ten years, the JPMorganChase Institute has analyzed data and produced insights to help leaders in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors make more informed choices. Additionally, last year the firm launched the JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics (CfG) to advise clients on how to anticipate and respond to top geopolitical trends and events reshaping the global landscape. To date, CfG has published papers on topics ranging from the defense industrial complex to America’s trade policy, artificial intelligence competition around the globe, and the intersection of energy and geopolitics.

“Working with clients every day, our team has a front row seat to how geopolitical uncertainty is forcing business leaders to evaluate their short- and long-term playbooks, assessing risks and seizing opportunities,” said Derek Chollet, Head of Center for Geopolitics. “Leveraging the full force of JPMorganChase as a leading global financial institution uniquely positions us to help clients make informed business decisions that enhance their commercial and competitive advantages.”

Survey Methodology

JPMorganChase’s Business Leaders Outlook survey was conducted online from November 11-26, 2025 for small businesses (annual revenues between $100,000 and $20 million) and from November 4 –26, 2025 for midsize businesses (annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million). In total, 2,471 U.S. business owners and leaders across various industries participated in the survey. For year-over-year trends, current data is compared to data collected in the fourth quarter of previous years. The results of this online survey are within statistical parameters for validity, and the error rate is plus or minus 3.1% for the small business findings and plus or minus 3.4% for the midsize business findings, both at the 95% confidence level.

About JPMorganChase

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is a leading financial services firm based in the United States of America (“U.S.”), with operations worldwide. JPMorgan Chase had $4.6 trillion in assets and $360 billion in stockholders’ equity as of September 30, 2025. The Firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing and asset management. Under the J.P. Morgan and Chase brands, the Firm serves millions of customers in the U.S., and many of the world’s most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients globally. Information about JPMorgan Chase & Co. is available at www.jpmorganchase.com

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