It may be best to avoid Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) right now. Since bottoming out at $0.51 in June, shares of the online real estate company exploded about 2,031% higher to $10.87 in September. That was all thanks to a meme stock frenzy, leadership changes, interest rate cuts, and insider buying.
Unfortunately, since the start of the year, OPEN stock has been halved to about $5 thanks to a challenging real estate environment, concerns about its turnaround strategy, and a decline in revenue. In fact, in the third quarter of 2025, revenue slipped about 34% year-over-year (YOY) to $915 million. The company also sold only 2,568 homes in the quarter, down from 3,165 in the year-ago period. And it’s also still operating at a loss at the moment.
The good news is there’s hope that Opendoor can turn itself around, especially with new CEO Kaz Nejatian positioning the company as an e-commerce platform for real estate, with a plan to reach profitability by the close of 2026.
Progress Is Being Made, But Opendoor Isn't a Buy Just Yet
Recent Q4 earnings just showed 46% growth in acquisitions, as well as progress with reducing its capital intensity. According to CEO Kaz Nejatian, the company increased homes purchased "by 46% quarter-over-quarter, significantly reduced our capital intensity by expanding Cash Plus such that it is now 35% of our weekly volume, and we reduced average days in possession of our inventory by 23%.”
The company posted a loss per share of $0.07 for the quarter, which was a penny better than estimates. Revenue of $736 million beat estimates of around $594 million. Unfortunately, however, revenue came in 20% below prior quarter numbers and 32% lower YOY. Opendoor also posted a GAAP net loss of $1.1 billion, which was wider than anticipated thanks to debt extinguishment costs. Plus, the number of homes sold fell 30% from 2,822 to 1,978.
Not helping, existing home sales stalled last year at a 31-year low, “as high mortgage rates and elevated prices made it tough for many Americans to buy homes," per MarketWatch. "Home sales stagnated at a rate of 4.06 million, tying the year with 2024 for the worst performance in three decades.” According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales dropped 8.4% from December to January to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.91 million. That marks the slowest pace of sales in over two years. In short, there’s nothing to get excited about with OPEN stock just yet.
What Are Analysts Saying About OPEN Stock?
Of the 11 analysts covering OPEN stock, one analyst has a “Strong Buy" rating, six analysts call the stock a “Hold,” two have a “Moderate Sell,” and two have a "Strong Sell” rating. At the moment, the mean target price among analysts is $3.48, which implies 30% potential downside. Meanwhile, the high-end target of $8 implies 60% potential upside from here.
Unfortunately, Opendoor stock isn’t worth buying just yet. The company is still losing money, the housing market remains fragile, and analyst sentiment isn’t much to write home about. The good news is that management is clearly shifting away from a risky model for a scalable, e-commerce-style platform that emphasizes faster inventory turnover and lower capital intensity. However, there will be further volatility here until we see more turnaround success and improvements to the housing market, with the potential for more interest rate cuts. All told, it's probably best to avoid OPEN stock for now.
On the date of publication, Ian Cooper did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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