March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are trending up +0.17% this morning as investors look ahead to an earnings report from chip giant Nvidia, whose results have become a barometer for the AI trade.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher. Software stocks advanced, led by a more than +11% surge in Thomson Reuters (TRI) after the company said its legal-and-compliance platform, CoCounsel, has topped 1 million users. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbed more than +8% to lead chipmakers higher after Meta Platforms said it will deploy 6 gigawatts of data center capacity powered by the company’s processors. In addition, Keysight Technologies (KEYS) jumped over +23% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the electronics test equipment manufacturer posted upbeat FQ1 results and provided strong FQ2 guidance. On the bearish side, Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) slumped more than -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q4 operating income.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 91.2 in February, stronger than expectations of 87.4. At the same time, the U.S. December S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. rose +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.3% y/y. In addition, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -10 in February, weaker than expectations of -8.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that additional rate cuts hinge on progress in bringing down inflation. He also said the tariffs ruling “could bring relief to the inflation side” of the Fed’s mandate. Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said inflation has “stalled out” over the past 12 to 18 months at a level that remains “unacceptably” above the Fed’s 2% target. In addition, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, “I think that it’s quite likely that it will be appropriate to hold the current range for some time. After 175 basis points of easing over the past year and a half, we are at mildly restrictive, perhaps quite close to neutral already.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.0% chance of no rate change and a 2.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March. Investors currently do not anticipate a rate cut until at least midyear.
Meanwhile, President Trump, in his address to Congress, reaffirmed his commitment to tariffs but did not announce any new policies. The president voiced confidence that foreign countries would honor their trade agreements and even predicted that the U.S. would generate so much revenue that it could “substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.”
Investors are keenly awaiting Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the market close. Wall Street analysts and investors are bullish heading into the report, expecting the chipmaker to beat expectations and deliver strong guidance for the current quarter. The report will come after a period of muted share performance, as investors rotated out of megacap stocks.
“We see no reason for Nvidia not to report a good quarter, at least maintaining the current trajectory of 50%+ growth,” said Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson. “Its main customers, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have maintained or increased significant capex growth guidance for this year that easily supports this trajectory.”
Retailers such as The TJX Companies (TJX) and Lowe’s (LOW), along with prominent companies like Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Snowflake (SNOW), and Zoom Communications (ZM), are also set to report their quarterly figures today.
Market participants will also hear perspectives from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem throughout the day.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 1.8 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of -9.0 million barrels.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.052%, up +0.47%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.66% this morning, hitting a new record high amid a recovery in risk sentiment. Bank stocks were among the biggest gainers on Wednesday, led by a more than +4% gain in HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.LN) after Europe’s largest lender by assets raised a key profitability target after its annual profit topped expectations. Technology stocks also advanced, supported by some beaten-down software names after Anthropic partnered with several companies in the industry and rolled out new AI plug-ins. In addition, mining and energy stocks climbed, as metal and oil prices rose. Final data from Eurostat confirmed on Wednesday that the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.7% in January. Separately, a survey showed that consumer sentiment in Germany is poised to deteriorate in March, with households showing a markedly reduced willingness to spend amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over government social policies. Investor focus now turns to an earnings report from Nvidia due later in the day. In other corporate news, Nordex Se (NDX1.D.DX) surged over +15% after the onshore wind turbine maker posted better-than-expected 2025 core profit. At the same time, Diageo (DGE.LN) slid more than -5% after the drinks maker lowered its full-year guidance for the second time in four months and cut its dividend.
Germany’s GDP, Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index, France’s Consumer Confidence, Eurozone’s CPI, and Eurozone’s Core CPI data were released today.
The German GDP has been reported at +0.3% q/q and +0.4% y/y in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations.
The German March GfK Consumer Climate Index came in at -24.7, weaker than expectations of -23.0.
The French February Consumer Confidence stood at 91, stronger than expectations of 90.
Eurozone’s January CPI rose +1.7% y/y, in line with expectations.
Eurozone’s January Core CPI rose +2.2% y/y, in line with expectations.
Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.72%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +2.20%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, marking a second consecutive session of gains. Rare earth stocks rallied on Wednesday after China banned the export of dual-use items to 20 Japanese entities that it says supply Japan’s military. Non-ferrous metal stocks also climbed. In addition, real estate stocks jumped after Shanghai further eased homebuying restrictions, a move aimed at boosting demand as China’s prolonged property downturn continues. Starting Thursday, the city will permit non-resident homebuyers who have paid social security or individual taxes for one year to purchase homes in urban areas. Shanghai will also allow non-residents who have paid three years of income tax or social security to buy a second home in urban areas. Founder Securities analysts said Beijing and Shenzhen are likely to follow with additional easing measures. Meanwhile, China reported record tourism revenue and trip volumes during the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday, as the government extended the break to stimulate consumer spending. In other news, the Nikkei newspaper reported that China’s leading chipmakers are seeking to ramp up production of advanced semiconductors to meet surging AI demand. Investors are looking ahead to the National People’s Congress in March, where leaders typically outline key economic goals, including growth and budget targets.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher and hit a new record high today, tracking a technology-led rebound on Wall Street overnight as worries over the disruptive impact of AI subsided. Japanese equities were also underpinned by a weaker yen. The Japanese currency fell to its weakest level in more than two weeks against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after a report said Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voiced concerns to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda about future rate hikes at a recent meeting. The yen extended declines on Wednesday after Japan’s government nominated two reflationist academics to join the BOJ policy board. Tomoichiro Kubota, senior market analyst at Matsui Securities, said, “In the market, some say the appointees to the board are viewed as dovish and, in the short term, are likely to weaken the yen and lift stocks.” Semiconductor-related and real estate stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Meanwhile, longer-dated Japanese government bond yields climbed at the fastest pace in a month on Wednesday after the nomination of two academics to the central bank’s board fueled concerns about the country’s fiscal health. On the economic front, data showed that a key indicator of Japan’s services-sector inflation rose 2.6% in January from a year earlier, signaling that rising wages amid a tight labor market continued to add inflationary pressure. In corporate news, Nomura Research Institute climbed over +6% following the announcement that the company launched support services for implementing Anthropic’s Claude and would deepen its collaboration with the AI lab. Investors are awaiting a slew of Japan’s economic data due later in the week, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -12.69% to 26.89.
The Japanese January Corporate Services Price Index rose +2.6% y/y, in line with expectations.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Axon Enterprise (AXON) surged over +16% in pre-market trading after the maker of Taser stun guns reported upbeat Q4 results and provided strong FY26 revenue growth guidance.
Oracle (ORCL) rose more than +2% in pre-market trading after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to Outperform from Perform with an $185 price target.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) gained about +2% in pre-market trading after the CBS owner increased its offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to $31 per share.
First Solar (FSLR) plunged over -17% in pre-market trading after the solar panel maker posted weaker-than-expected Q4 EPS and gave downbeat FY26 revenue guidance.
Workday (WDAY) slumped over -8% in pre-market trading after the software company issued below-consensus Q1 subscription revenue guidance.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - February 25th
NVIDIA (NVDA), The TJX Companies (TJX), Salesforce (CRM), Lowe's Companies (LOW), Synopsys (SNPS), Nu Holdings (NU), Medline (MDLN), Snowflake (SNOW), HEICO (HEI), TKO Group Holdings (TKO), Agilent Technologies (A), VICI Properties (VICI), FTAI Aviation (FTAI), Zoom Communications (ZM), Pure Storage (PSTG), United Therapeutics (UTHR), Revolution Medicines (RVMD), APi Group (APG), Permian Resources (PR), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Universal Health Services (UHS), Sterling Infrastructure (STRL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), The Trade Desk (TTD), Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Essential Utilities (WTRG), IonQ (IONQ), Owens Corning (OC), StandardAero (SARO), Nutanix (NTNX), APA Corporation (APA), Lineage (LINE), Joby Aviation (JOBY), Chime Financial (CHYM), UWM Holdings (UWMC), Federal Signal (FSS), Kinetik Holdings (KNTK), Ormat Technologies (ORA), Churchill Downs (CHDN), Chemed (CHE), Starwood Property Trust (STWD), Hut 8 (HUT), Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM), Southwest Gas Holdings (SWX), VSE Corporation (VSEC), Chord Energy (CHRD), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Alkermes (ALKS), Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL), SM Energy Company (SM), LandBridge Company LLC (LB), Excelerate Energy (EE), Graham Holdings Company (GHC), Cactus (WHD), Icahn Enterprises (IEP), National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA), EPR Properties (EPR), Clear Secure (YOU), OUTFRONT Media (OUT), Kodiak Gas Services (KGS), MYR Group (MYRG), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD), The St. Joe Company (JOE), Dorman Products (DORM), Tri Pointe Homes (TPH), ADMA Biologics (ADMA), LivaNova (LIVN), FS KKR Capital (FSK), Newmark Group (NMRK), Miami International Holdings (MIAX), Avista (AVA), HNI Corporation (HNI), Green Brick Partners (GRBK), Hayward Holdings (HAYW), Crescent Energy Company (CRGY), Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT), Chesapeake Utilities (CPK), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Vera Therapeutics (VERA), BKV Corporation (BKV), Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX), DigitalBridge Group (DBRG), Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK), McGrath RentCorp (MGRC), Veracyte (VCYT), Seadrill (SDRL), Steven Madden (SHOO), California Water Service Group (CWT), LifeStance Health Group (LFST), Driven Brands Holdings (DRVN), Northern Oil and Gas (NOG), Ingevity (NGVT), Arcus Biosciences (RCUS), DXP Enterprises (DXPE), Photronics (PLAB), Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO), Global Net Lease (GNL), Fidelis Insurance Holdings (FIHL), LeMaitre Vascular (LMAT), Sezzle (SEZL), HCI Group (HCI), Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), SmartStop Self Storage REIT (SMA), IMAX Corporation (IMAX), H2O America (HTO), Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC), Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX), Veeco Instruments (VECO), Oddity Tech (ODD), Magnite (MGNI), Alkami Technology (ALKT).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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