As NYC's proposed millionaire tax accelerates wealth flight, Tampa Bay luxury brokerages pivot strategy to capture Manhattan executive exodus. HOMESCENE's Regina Sotomayor sees ‘generational shift.

From 57th Street to Sunset Point: As New York's Political Winds Shift, Tampa Bay Brokerages Pivot Strategy to Capture Unprecedented Wealth Migration.

Tampa Bay luxury real estate firms repositioning inventory as high-net-worth New Yorkers flee proposed tax hikes; Clearwater broker Regina Sotomayor sees 'generational market shift'.

CLEARWATER, FL / ACCESS Newswire / October 27, 2025 / As New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's proposed "millionaire tax" accelerates wealth flight concerns, Tampa Bay real estate firms are witnessing a decisive pivot moment: the luxury buyer they're targeting is no longer snowbirding from Manhattan. They're relocating permanently.

"This isn't about winter homes anymore," says Regina Sotomayor, Lead Broker at HOMESCENE Property Partners, whose Clearwater-based firm has quietly repositioned its luxury inventory strategy over the past six months to target New York's displaced executive class. "We're seeing seven-figure earners who never imagined leaving the city now asking: 'Show me what Tampa Bay looks like as my primary address.'"

The Numbers Tell the Story

The migration data is stark. According to the Citizens Budget Commission, more than 125,000 New Yorkers have relocated to Florida in recent years, carrying nearly $14 billion in adjusted gross income. Approximately 41,000 moved specifically to South Florida's tri-county area between 2018 and 2022, stripping New York City of an estimated $10 billion in income.

Now, with Mamdani's proposal to add a 2% tax on earnings over $1 million (bringing New York City's combined federal, state, and city rate to 53.776%), even centrist observers acknowledge the exodus could accelerate dramatically. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman warned that if just 100 high-earning professionals in his industry alone departed, New York could lose $5-10 billion in tax revenue, calling it "Ken Griffin leaving Chicago for Miami on steroids."

The trend received its highest-profile validation on October 20, when billionaire developer John Catsimatidis (whose Red Apple Group is building the Residences at 400 Central in downtown St. Petersburg) announced his intention to make the Tampa-St. Petersburg region his primary home. "I'd rather spend a billion dollars here than in New York right now because in New York, they've lost their minds," Catsimatidis told the Economic Club of Tampa.

Tampa Bay's Competitive Advantage

Tampa-St. Petersburg has emerged as a preferred alternative to Miami for New Yorkers seeking both lifestyle and value. Recent market analysis shows Tampa Bay ultra-luxury transactions (properties above $5 million) surged 50% in 2024, according to Compass Real Estate's national luxury report. The $27 million Waldorf Astoria penthouse sale in St. Petersburg earlier this year, more than double the region's previous record, signals that buyer expectations are rapidly recalibrating upward.

Henley & Partners' 2024 USA Wealth Report specifically named Tampa as a "future wealth hotspot to watch," predicting it will attract rising numbers of high-net-worth residents over the next decade. Since 2020, the Tampa Bay area has seen a 98% increase in million-dollar home sales, yet inventory of true luxury product (particularly modern, turnkey residences with smart home integration) remains critically constrained.

"The scarcity is real," notes Sotomayor, whose firm recently partnered with luxury integration specialist MCS PRO to transform select properties into what she calls "New York-caliber residences with Florida benefits," a direct response to buyer feedback. "These aren't South Florida transplants shopping for second homes. These are Manhattan executives, private equity partners, and family office principals who want the sophistication they're used to, just without the 16.8% state and city tax bite."

The New York-to-Tampa Bay Playbook

For brokerages, the shift requires understanding the psychographic profile of a buyer making a high-stakes, often emotionally complex decision to leave a city they've called home for decades.

"They're not looking for a project," Sotomayor explains. "They want to arrive, unpack, and immediately host their Manhattan friends for a weekend to prove they made the right choice. That means everything from luxury amenities to smart automation needs to feel seamless, because these buyers are comparing us to what they just left behind on the Upper East Side."

One example: HOMESCENE's recently completed Sky Penthouse 703 at Serena by the Sea in Clearwater, a 3,525-square-foot corner residence with 16-foot ceilings, west-facing Gulf views, and a private bespoke cinema installation. The $4.8 million property represents precisely the kind of inventory Sotomayor believes will define Tampa Bay's next chapter: properties that don't ask New York buyers to compromise on sophistication, only on their tax rate.

Political Uncertainty as Market Catalyst

While New York Governor Kathy Hochul has stated she will block Mamdani's income tax increase (income tax rates are set by Albany, not City Hall), the political discourse alone is having an effect. Florida real estate brokers report a surge in inquiries from wealthy New Yorkers, and Henley & Partners recorded a 183% rise in applications from UK-based super-rich for alternative residence programs following similar tax regime changes.

"Perception matters as much as policy," says Sotomayor. "When executives hear a mayoral candidate propose a tax structure that would take more than half their income, they don't wait to see if it passes. They call their broker and their accountant, often in that order."

The UK provides a cautionary tale: since the 2016 Brexit vote, Britain shifted from a net magnet for millionaires to a net exporter, with a record 16,500 HNWIs expected to leave in 2025 following sweeping tax reforms. New York's top 1% of earners contribute 40% of the city's income tax revenue, making the stakes of even modest wealth migration seismically impactful.

Looking Ahead: Infrastructure Gaps and Opportunities

Despite the momentum, Tampa Bay faces challenges in capturing this demographic shift. The region's luxury inventory (particularly modern, high-rise waterfront condominiums with smart-home integration and hotel-like amenity packages) remains thin compared to Miami or Manhattan. Major developments like 400 Central and the Waldorf Astoria Residences are partially addressing this gap, but delivery timelines stretch into 2027-2029.

"There's a mismatch right now between buyer urgency and product availability," Sotomayor observes. "We're getting inquiries from people who want to close in 90 days, but the new construction they're looking at won't be ready for three years. That's creating opportunities for firms willing to transform existing inventory into truly exceptional product."

For Tampa Bay, the wealth migration represents more than just high-dollar real estate transactions. It's a fundamental recalibration of the region's economic and cultural identity. As Catsimatidis put it: "I believe the St. Pete, Tampa area is the next area to go to the moon."

For brokers like Sotomayor, the question is whether Tampa Bay's real estate industry can move fast enough to meet the moment.

About HOMESCENE Property Partners

HOMESCENE Property Partners curates transformative luxury real estate experiences throughout Tampa Bay, specializing in properties that define rather than follow market standards. The firm focuses on strategic partnerships with developers and lifestyle service providers to deliver turnkey residences for sophisticated buyers relocating from major metropolitan markets.

Media Inquiries:
Regina Sotomayor, Lead Broker
HOMESCENE Property Partners
727-688-7496
600 Cleveland St Suite 312
Clearwater, FL
regina@homescene.com

HOMESCENE Property Partners
727-877-3020
media@homescene.com

Sources & References for Editors:

• John Catsimatidis remarks on Tampa Bay investment and relocation: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 20, 2025; Economic Club of Tampa address

• New York wealth migration data: Citizens Budget Commission report; 125,000+ New Yorkers to Florida carrying $14 billion in income

• Mamdani millionaire tax proposal: CNBC, July 17, 2025; proposed 2% additional tax on earnings over $1 million

• Bill Ackman wealth flight warning: Multiple sources, July 2025; warned of potential $5-10 billion tax revenue loss

• Tampa Bay ultra-luxury market: Compass Real Estate 2025 Luxury Report; 50% increase in transactions above $5 million

• Waldorf Astoria St. Petersburg penthouse: $27 million sale, April 2025 - Tampa Bay record

• Tampa as wealth hotspot: Henley & Partners 2024 USA Wealth Report; named Tampa among future HNWI destinations

• UK millionaire exodus: Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2025; record 16,500 HNWIs expected to leave following tax reforms

• Global millionaire migration: 142,000 HNWIs projected to relocate internationally in 2025, up from 134,000 in 2024

SOURCE: Home Scene Property Partners